A GLOBAL WARMING PRIMER

And now for all you man made global warming “confused”, try this on for size…. TRM

Disclaimer: This primer is based on a review of available scientific research. The NCPA received no money and no input from any private company or government agency.

The purpose of this primer is to explore some of the main scientific, economic and political issues surrounding the topic of global warming.

Table of Contents
Part I: A Brief History of Global Warming
Part II: Consequences of Recent Warming
Part III: Responses to Future Warming
Source List

Part I: A Brief History of Global Warming
Greenhouse gases are a small part of the Earth’s atmosphere. However, they are critical to making the planet habitable—keeping the Earth from being a freezing rock in space like Mars.
Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels for energy and deforestation, have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gases and many scientists believe this has caused the present warming trend.

 

Part II: Consequences of Recent Warming
Many scientists worry that global warming will cause droughts, floods, hurricanes of greater intensity, coastal flooding and the extinction of species that cannot adapt to change. So far, these effects are not evident.

Part III: Responses to Future Warming
Even though there have been few visible consequences of global warming in the 20th century, the latest United Nations report projects increased coastal flooding (due to sea levels rising approximately 17 inches) and millions of additional cases of malaria (as mosquitoes breed at higher elevations) and hunger (due to increased drought).
Most laws and treaties proposed to prevent, reduce or slow global warming would be expensive and do little to prevent warming or future harms. For a fraction of the costs, we could prevent much more harm and benefit many more people by adapting to a warmer world.

Can the Kyoto Protocol Stop Global Warming?

Copenhagen Consensus, a panel of eight world-renowned economists (including three Nobel laureates), met in 2004 to discuss and prioritize proposals that address ten of the world’s greatest challenges and advance global welfare (see ranking below). The challenges, identified by the United Nations, included: civil conflicts; climate change; communicable diseases; education; financial stability; governance; hunger and malnutrition; migration; trade reform; and water and sanitation.

 

 

Source ListGraph/chart complete sources, by page number.
Pg. 5 “Atmosphere: Components and Characteristics of the Earth’s Atmosphere,” Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 2007, published on Factmonster.com. Available at http://www.factmonster.com/ce6/sci/A0856758.html. Access verified July 2, 2007.

Pg. 6 Taken from Monte Heib, “Global Warming: A Closer Look at the Numbers,” Plant Fossils of West Virginia (Web site), January 10, 2003, table 3; available at http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html. Also see Steven Milloy, “Coconuts in Wyoming?” FOXNews.com, June 17, 2004. Available at http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,123013,00.html.

Pg. 7 Amy Kaleita, “Sense and Sequestration: The Carbon Sequestration Cycle Explained,” Pacific Research Institute, November 2006; available at http://liberty.pacificresearch.org/docLib/20070202_2006_Carbon_seq.pdf. Volcano Hazards Program, U.S. Geological Survey, “Volcanic Gases and Their Effects,” January 10, 2006.

Pg. 8 Lee C. Gerhard, “Geologic Constraints on Global Climate Variability,” Search and Discovery, Article No. 70030, January 2007; available at http://searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2007/07005gerhard/index.htm.

Pg. 9-11 Figures based on Monte Hieb, “Climate and the Carboniferous Period: Similarities with Our Present World,” Plant Fossils of West Virginia (Web site), updated September 19, 2006; available at http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html. For temperature data, see C.R. Scotese, “Climate History: Ice House or Hot House?” PALEOMAP Project, April 20, 2002; available at http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm. For CO2 data, see Robert A. Berner and Zavareth Kothavala, “Geocarb III: A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic Time,” American Journal of Science, Vol. 301, February 2001, pages 182-204; available at http://www.ajsonline.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/2/182.

Pg. 12 Jean Robert Petit et al., “Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 Years from the Vostok Ice Core in Antarctica,” Nature, Vol. 399, No. 6735, June 3,1999, pages 429-36.

Pg. 13 Hubertus Fischer et al., “Ice Core Records of Atmospheric CO2 Around the Last Three Glacial Terminations,” Science, Vol. 283, No. 5408, March 12, 1999, pages 1,712-14. Also see Urs Siegenthaler et al., “Stable Carbon Cycle-Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene,” Science, Vol. 310, No. 5752, November 25, 2005, pages 1,313-17; and Leonid F. Khilyuk et al., “Global Warming: Are We Confusing Cause and Effect?” Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization and Environmental Effects, Vol. 25, Issue 4, April 2003, pages 357-370.

Pg. 14 John P. Bluemle, Joseph M. Sable and Wibjörn Karlén, “Rate and Magnitude of Past Global Climate Changes,” in Lee C. Gerhard, William E. Harrison and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., “Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: AAPG Studies in Geology, No. 47,” American Association of Petroleum Geologists, March 15, 2001, pages 193–212.

Pg. 15 Charles D. Keeling and Timothy P. Whorf, “Atmospheric CO2 Records from Sites in the SIO Air Sampling Network” in “Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change,” Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Energy, 2005; available at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm. David M. Etheridge et al., “Historical CO2 Records from the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS Ice Cores,” in “Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change,” Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Energy, 1998. And Albrecht Neftel et al., “Historical CO2 Records from the Siple Station Ice Core,” in “Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change,” Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Energy, 1994.

Pg. 16 Phil Jones, “Global Temperature Record,” Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Information Sheets, March 2007. Available at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/.

Pg. 17 United Nations, Millennium Development Goals Indicators, Dataset. Available at http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Data.aspx.

Pg. 18 Marlo Lewis Jr., “Al Gore’s Science Fiction: A Skeptic’s Guide to An Inconvenient Truth,” Competitive Enterprise Institute, Congressional Working Paper, March 16, 2007, page 115. Available at http://www.cei.org/pdf/5820.pdf. Data from the Energy Information Administration.

Pg. 19 Stephen W. Pacala et al., “Consistent Land- and Atmospheric-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates,” Science, Vol. 292, No. 5525, June 22, 2001, pages 2,316-20.

Pg. 20 “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, February 2007.

Pg. 21 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Reports, 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007. Also see, U.S. General Accounting Office, “Global Warming: Limitations of General Circulation Models and Costs of Modeling Efforts,” GAO/RCED-95-164, July1995; available at http://www.gao.gov/archive/1995/rc95164.pdf.

Pg. 22 Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch, “The Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Warming, 2003,” unpublished; available at http://w3g.gkss.de/staff/bray/BrayGKSSsite/BrayGKSS/surveyframe.html.

Pg. 24 Gerald T. Westbrook, “Sea Levels and Globalization,” National Center for Policy Analysis, Brief Analysis No. 282, October 9, 1998. Richard Alley et al., “Summary for Policymakers,” in “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, February 2007.

Pg. 25 Peter Lemke et al, “Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground,” in “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, page 363-66. Available at http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Pub_Ch04.pdf.

Pg. 26 Stefan Norris, Lynn Rosentrater and Pal Martin Eid “Polar Bears at Risk: A WWF Status Report,” World Wildlife Fund, May 2002.

Pg. 27 Patrick Michaels, “Global Warming and Hurricanes: Still No Connection,” Capitalism Magazine, September 24, 2005. Available at http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4418. Figures by Patrick Michaels; derived from National Hurricane Center data and extending on data from Peter Webster et al., “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment,” Science, Vol. 309, No. 5742, September 16, 2005.

Pg. 28 Indur M. Goklany, “Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2004,” Climate Change and Disaster Losses Workshop, Hohenkammer, Germany, May 25-26, 2006. Available at http://members.cox.net/goklany/Extreme%20Events%20Note%20Hohenkammer.pdf.

Pg. 29 National Drought Mitigation Center.

Pg. 30 Sherwood B. Idso, “CO2 and the Biosphere: The Incredible Legacy of the Industrial Revolution,” Third Annual Kuehnast Lecture, University of Minnesota, Department of Soil, Safety and Climate, 1995.

Pg. 32 Tom M.L. Wigley, “The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and Climate Implications,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 25, No. 13, July 1998, pages 2,285-88. Also see Bjørn Lomborg, “Global Warming: Are We Doing the Right Thing? Guardian Unlimited (United Kingdom), August 17, 2001; available at http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2001/08/14/warming.pdf.

Pg. 33 Stephen Brown, “Global Warming Policy: Some Economic Implications,” National Center for Policy Analysis, Policy Report No. 224, May 1999.

Pg. 34 Nigel W. Arnell et al., “The Consequences of CO2 Stabilization for the Impacts of Climate Change,” Climate Change, Vol. 53, No. 4, June 2002, pages 413-46; Nigel W. Arnell, “Climate Change and Global Water Resources,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 9, Supplement 1, October 1999, pages S31-S49; Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy and Environment, Vol. 14, No. 6, November 1, 2003.

Pg. 35 Indur M. Goklany, “Living with Global Warming,” National Center for Policy Analysis, Policy Report No. 278, September 2005.

Pg. 36 Paul M. Bernstein et al., “Effects of Restrictions on International Permit Trading: The MS-MRT Model,” in “The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation,” Energy Journal, Special Issue, May 1999, pages 221-56.

Pg. 37 “Copenhagen Consensus 2004: Today’s Challenge—Tomorrow’s Opportunity,” Copenhagen Consensus Center. Available at http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Admin/Public/Download.aspx?file=Files/Filer/CC/Press/UK/copenhagen_consensus_result_FINAL.pdf.

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